( Brian Ringland - ORT)

First a few facts. Syria, is a country of 22 million people of which 70% are Sunni Muslim. Shia Muslims as well as Druze and Christians and Ismailis compromise another 20%. The Alawite sect 10%. Syria is ruled by the minority Alawite Sect. The country is ruled by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The al-Assad regime has been in power for 40 years. The Syrian state has always been brutal when it comes to any sort of open dissent. Demonstrations are violently suppressed whenever possible. The police, army, and intelligence services are all dominated by the Alawites. The president's brother, Maher, controls most of the army as well as the
country's republican guard.

Being a ruling minority in a country of 22 million people for so long could only have come at the expense of personal freedoms and rights for the people of Syria. That the Alawites have been in power for so long is a testament to it's willingness to be cruel and harsh to it's own people. Like other Middle East nations in the last six months, unrest has spread to almost every major city. The have been reports that tanks have been called in in some cases to back up the military as well as the police. More than six hundred people have been reported killed so far. The government has made sure not to allow protesters to make it to the center of cities into the main squares as has happened in Egypt and in other countries.

It's logical to assume that the ruling party, after being in power for so long would be afraid of reprisals as well as knowing that their position in society would be finished if the regime falls. The situation in Syria is precarious at best. The current regime clearly needs to go. However, that change in government could spark a civil war between the majority Sunnis and minority Shia. The Kurds in the countries north could seize the opportunity to try and create a Kurdish homeland for themselves. For this and other more complicated reasons, western nations have been very slow to act, if at all at this stage.

The United States has always been at odds with the Syrian regime. It was only a few years ago in 2007, that an attack on Syria's al-Kibar nuclear facility surprised the world. The operation was carried out by the Israeli Air Force. The Syrian government had apparently obtained the needed technical expertise and guidance to build the facility from Abdul Qadeer Khan. Khan was the Pakistani nuclear scientist who ran a clandestine black market network that offered nuclear technology and hardware to Syria and other countries. There was a North Korean connection as well. The facility that was destroyed was a copy of a facility that is located in North Korea.

Under the right circumstances the U.S would prefer to initiate a regime change in Syria once and for all. Most people in Washington see Syria as a proxy - state of Iran. However, the relationship that exists between Syria and Iran further complicates the situation. Iran has been providing assistance to the al-Assad regime to help quell the dissent.

The question many are asking is what should America's role be in the Syrian crisis if any at all? There is a growing consensus that as the daily reports of more protester deaths mount, the decision to aid the protesters in some way becomes more likely. As soon as a strategy is drawn up that takes into consideration the situation in the region and between it's people. We'll go in. It's not likely that the protesters are going to go away. It's also not likely that the al-Assad regime will allow the protesters to continue. The result is more will die.

The most likely play out to this situation is a naval task force parked off the Syrian coast. Air support would continue out of Italy. If the Italians decide not to get involved then the carrier in the task group could provide any air support if needed. There could in all probability be some sort of international task force parked of off Syria's coast by the beginning of August of this year. There are a lot of resources and troops available as missions wind down in other parts of the world, namely Iraq and Afghanistan.

A growing number of Arab nations are starting to voice their concerns over the west's
involvement especially in Libia and Egypt. Yet the revolutions and demonstrations continue throughout the region daily showing no signs of stopping.Those of us who once thought that any involvement by the U.S in the Syrian crisis was highly unlikely are now wondering which naval task group will be sent to the region and when. As the death toll rises our involvement
becomes an inevitability. The repercussions are enormous for both ourselves and the people that are there trying to bring about change.

Things are changing rapidly in the Middle East and the pace of that change has made it
next to impossible to say with any certainty what the future will hold in the region.

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Editor and source writer for The Overrated Truth