Central thesis is that demographic trends can affect economic cycles. Conquer the Crash provides a well-thought out argument that the US, and indeed, the world economy is going to continue to decline as the result of the deflation of three bubbles, the stock market, real estate, and commodities all together. The cause is a change in social mood that is inherent in crowd physchology. The cause is in place for a deflationary crash, the effect cannot be stopped.

Conquer the crash made several significant contrarian predictions that have proven correct, perhaps most notably the collapse of financial markets in 2008 and it's details. While Prechter's predictions aren't always 100% accurate, they do appear to often hit near the mark (with the exception of his prediction that the FED (Federal Reserve Bank) could sit and watch the carnage without intervention).

One thing that I find interesting is that, using elliott waves, Conquer the Crash not only predicts economic cycles, it explains WHY the economy behaves as it does. In this regard, I find that Prechter's use of charts and past cycles is more persuasive that many other authors who simply identify patterns and make predictions based upon them. The main reason to read The Great Depression Ahead is to see the most persuasive case that can be made for an extended economic decline in the United States and other developed countries. After understanding that case, you'll be in a better position to make decisions that will leave you better off regardless if the economy recovers quickly or keeps sliding down for several years (as it did in the early 1930s). Mr. Dent is better than most forecasters for this purpose because he provides lots of documentation for why he develops the scenario forecasts that he does.

What's the essence of the case bears are making for a deflationary crash?

1. Developed countries are facing many years when there will be declining numbers of people in their peak spending years.

2. A multi-decade commodity price cycle is about to peak to be followed by lower prices.

3. The burst bubble in real estate will be with us for some time, and prices will fall further and longer than most people expect.

4. There are no new innovations waiting in the wings to drive economic growth forward.

He takes that scenario and develops investing, business, and personal financial planning solutions over the next century.

The essence of the advice is to play it safe for now by being in short-term Treasuries and to later switch into Treasury bonds after interest rates rise a lot (expecting that the bond prices will soar as the yields once again fall to near zero). If you can sell your house now, sell it and rent. If you can sell your business now, do it. Otherwise, play it safe, hunker down, and wait for competitors to disappear.

Anyone considering this book might also want to review behavioral finance - the notion of "availability error" (viewing current events through superficially similar previous events) and "confirmation bias" (we observe events that confirm our hypotheses). Behavioral psychologists note that the use of so-called judgmental heuristics (shortcuts to manage large amount of information) can make assessments of market odds difficult. I can't say whether Prechter's predictions suffer from any of these flaws, but readers may wish to consider books like Taleb's "The Black Swan" (one key point being humans see patterns where there are none), Paulos' "A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market" (overview of behavioral psychology) or even Dreman's "Contrarian Investment Strategies: the Next Generation" (extensive discussion of pattern-seeking) before committing their assets as suggested in Dent's book. This is not to criticize the book itself, but simply to suggest that as with anything that purports to predict the future, readers should go in with their eyes open.

Economic forecasts are notoriously wrong. In fact, some forecasters "predict" the opposite of the consensus. Financial forecasts are even worse. But even today, after 2008, Conquer the Crash reads like an accurate history book that was written almost in aprophetic way to predict the events of the crash we are still going through.